Anticipatory Action Protocol
This Anticipatory Action Protocol (AAP) was developed to define how the risk of dry spells will be managed using an anticipatory action approach – from risk monitoring and analysis to the implementation of appropriate anticipatory actions. The protocol is for Balaka, Chikwawa and Neno Districts in Malawi.
Why dry spells?
Agricultural production is the backbone of Malawi’s agri-food systems, per the recent analysis made by the Ministry of Agriculture for the UN Food Systems Summit 2021.
The agriculture sector contributed 23 percent to the national gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 while supporting the livelihood of about 85 percent of the population.
However, the degradation of natural resources and the prevalent agriculture production practices limit the resilience of small-scale farmers to multiple vulnerabilities, shocks and stresses caused by natural disasters. This was the case in the aftermath of the El Niño phenomenon in 2016/2017 and most recently in the 2020/21 season, where large dry spells hit the country’s southern region, compounding the already strained food security situation reported by the Government of Malawi (IPC 2020/21). During the 2021/22 cropping season, dry spells damaged up to 50 percent of the crops planted and thus threatened food and nutrition security, livelihoods and lives of the affected populations.
Depending on when dry spells occur during the agricultural season; the shocks can have varying effects on crop production, thereby limiting food and income. It is especially detrimental if dry spells occur during the planting (November/December) and flowering (January/February). Dry spells that happen in the middle of the season, particularly during flowering, are the most damaging because it is too late in the rainy season to replant and protect rain-fed production.
Early Warning
As part of this framework, FAO, with the support of Government counterparts and relevant stakeholders, has defined an early warning system (scientific trigger model) for dry spells. This allows communities and stakeholders to be better aware of risk progression and early risk management options before the dry spell impacts livelihoods in Balaka, Chikwawa and Neno Districts.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations