Key findings
• Common and severe effects of flooding, storms, and drought
• Some experience of temporary displacement due to flooding
• Little desire to move: most believe they have to stay because they feel attached to the land, despite expectations of worsening environmental conditions
• Uncertainty about the ‘success’ of migration
Chikwawa and climate risks
Malawi has a long history of environmental hazards, with the country experiencing more than 40 climate-related disasters between 1970 and 2006. Drought and flood cycles occur almost annually. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation drives drought conditions in Malawi, while La Niña is associated with unusually high rainfall.1 Weather-related disaster events are becoming increasingly frequent in Malawi.
Most recently, in March 2019, heavy rains and severe flooding in southern Malawi were caused by Cyclone Idai.
Some areas were extremely affected, pushing a large number of people into poverty and food insecurity.2 In 2005, a devastating drought left 40% of the population in immediate need of food aid. Drought is followed by flooding or vice versa. For example, major floods that affected Chikwawa and other districts in 2015 were followed by a severe drought in 2016. Floods in January 2019 were followed by Tropical Cyclone Idai two months later. These disasters have a cumulative effect on the population.
Strong damaging winds are also reported to frequently affect Malawi. For example, in April 2018 strong winds accompanied by heavy rains affected 1,266 households in Chikwawa district, destroying roofs and homes.3 Strong winds also 1,350 households in September 2018.4 The impact of winds is understood to be worsening due to climate change and deforestation.
Chikwawa district had a population of 565,000 people in 2018.6 The district borders Mozambique and has the lowest elevation in the country, at around 37m above sea level. Chikwawa and neighbouring Nsanje districts are part of the Lower Shire Valley in the Southern Region of Malawi, which experiences high rates of poverty and food insecurity.
The Shire River is the only outlet from Lake Malawi, one of Africa’s largest lakes which extends approximately 600km over the Rift Valley. The Shire River Basin is a mix of forest, grassland, protected areas and game reserves. It faces a growing threat of environmental degradation stemming from developmental pressures such as rapid population growth, urbanisation, industrialisation, and deforestation both for agricultural land and for fuel. The soil on the limited arable land available is typically overused and highly susceptible to erosion and degradation during floods and droughts.7 Future changes to the climate, more extreme weather events, and changes in the quantity and quality of water supply are expected to have pronounced effects on wetlands across Malawi. Crop disease is exacerbated by rising temperatures, and infestations of Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) have occurred since 2016.8 This pest poses a significant threat to food security as it feeds on more than 80 plant species, including Malawi’s staple crops of sorghum, millet, and maize.9
Source: Mixed Migration Centre